As always, there’s got to be a gambling aspect to make everything a little more interesting, right? Here is how each of us see the game going tonight. Let’s make some money…
I’m definitely taking Butler getting +3.5, and I love the +145 money line for them. I also love the Under 128.5 in this one. UConn and Kentucky played to a 111 total score. That’s the kind of feel I have for this game. In general, games tend to slow down in high-pressure situations. Down the stretch, if this game is close, I expect a lot of long possessions for both teams. There is no doubt that Kemba Walker will be the best player on the floor in this game, and there is always the possibility he wins the game by himself. When it comes to college hoops though, I tend to lean towards squads that play with more of a team concept, and that is what Butler does.
As I said in my earlier post, Kemba is not letting his team lose, this tournament goes to the better dog. I got the Huskies -3.5 and over 128.5. Shelvin Mack is great, but Jeremy Lamb is going to shut him down tonight.
UConn has to cover 3.5 and burst through that tiny 128.5 over/under, right? I’m not falling for the bait. Those who bet against Butler in big time games lose their money (including last year’s Final versus Duke). Butler is going to force UConn into a slow-man’s game and grind out another win according to the same formula. Not to be overlooked is Butler’s significant advantage in terms of experience over UConn (I never thought I’d say that). I’ve got Butler winning it all (forget the points), and under 128.5.
I’m with Murph and Mayo on the spread. Even if UCONN pulls this out, Butler will make this a close, low-possesion game. Matt Howard and Mack have been making the key shots and grabbing the 50-50 jump balls whenever their team has needed it the most all tourney long. So give me the points. I also think Brad Stevens emphasizes ball possession and transition D, so I’m taking the under.
So, 3 Butler picks and a UConn. Given our track records, that might mean UConn wins by 20 tonight. Buyer beware.